Brazil, the Global South, and Philip Jenkins’ “The Next Christendom”

I’m just back from an eye-popping, heart-enlarging trip to Brazil. I visited several churches, met and preached to hundreds of church planters, and witnessed first-hand the remarkable outpouring of grace taking place in that beautiful country. To be frank, Brazilian believers make me feel like we are just “playing church” in the US. I was moved, convicted, and encouraged.

What I observed in Brazil immediately reminded me of a book I read a few decades ago by Philip Jenkins titled The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity. Jenkins is a British historian of the faith, professor of history at Baylor University, and co-director of Baylor's Program on Historical Studies of Religion in the Institute for Studies of Religion. His numerous history books are worthy of your attention, but from a futurist standpoint, his analysis of what’s coming and why is absolutely a must-read.

The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity provides a compelling and often provocative vision of the future of Christianity. In his analysis, Jenkins identifies a seismic shift in the heart of the Christian faith from the Global North (Europe and North America) to the Global South (Africa, Asia, and Latin America). His central thesis is that the future of Christianity lies in the southern hemisphere, where the church is growing rapidly, and he predicts that this southern Christianity will one day attempt to reconvert the secularizing Global North. Nearly three decades since the book was first published in 2002, we can assess the accuracy of Jenkins' forecasts and evaluate whether this reconversion has begun. In some senses, I believe it has and will only increase while the work God is doing in the Global South deepens.

1. Jenkins' Central Argument: The Rise of Global Christianity

Jenkins asserts that Christianity is no longer a predominantly Western religion. While many in the West see Christianity as a declining or stagnant force, Jenkins demonstrates that the faith is thriving in the Global South, especially in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This is manifestly the case.

He notes that by 2050, demographically, Christians in these regions will overwhelmingly outnumber their Northern counterparts. This shift is often described as the rise of the “Third Church,” distinguishing it from the ancient (Eastern Orthodox) and Reformation (Western Protestant) branches.

One of Jenkins' most striking points is the contrast between the secularizing trajectory of Europe and North America and the vitality of Christian communities in the Global South. While many Western countries have seen declining church attendance, a decrease in Christian cultural influence, and increasing secularism, southern Christianity is marked by charismatic worship, evangelical zeal, and deep social engagement. Jenkins suggests that this energized form of faith is not merely a reaction to Western Christianity but represents a new phase in the faith’s evolution—one that may, in turn, shape the future of Christianity globally.

2. Reconversion of the North: A Bold Prediction

Perhaps the most intriguing and controversial aspect of Jenkins’ work is his forecast that Christianity from the Global South will "reconvert" the secularized West. He envisions a time when churches in Europe and North America, having been largely abandoned or weakened by their populations, will experience renewal driven by immigrant communities and missionaries from the South. This, Jenkins argues, will come in response to the widespread secularism and spiritual void that has emerged in the Global North.

This prediction hinges on two key trends: immigration and the missionary activities of Southern Christians. In the early 2000s, when Jenkins first published The Next Christendom, these trends were already becoming visible, though they were not yet dominant. Jenkins’ analysis rightly identified the potential for this global movement, but the question remains: Is this now taking place? And if so, to what extent?

While it may displease those who hold strident anti-immigrant views in the US, it remains true that one way God is sending help (not harm) to the cause of the gospel in the US is via immigration. That’s not a case for illegal immigration or an open border, but it does sound a cautionary note about all discrimination and the failure to recognize in new neighbors the sovereign hand of God sending here those who will serve in remarkable ways. Many employ fear to decry immigration from Islamic countries (often rejecting the notion that God brings many here precisely to bring them to faith, something I’ve personally witnessed), but where are the voices celebrating the arrival of those from lands experiencing revival who will help to spread and strengthen the Church and her mission here?

3. The Role of Immigration: A Growing Southern Christian Presence in the North

That’s why one of the clearest examples of Jenkins' thesis playing out is the growing presence of immigrant communities from the Global South in Europe and North America. These immigrants, many of whom come from Christian-majority countries in Africa and Latin America, are bringing their faith with them, often revitalizing moribund congregations or establishing new ones altogether. We enjoy a large and thriving Brazilian community in our city and church, along with very strong Latino and Spanish-language communities. They are not only growing but generationally winning others to the faith in considerable numbers.

In Europe, Pentecostal and evangelical churches have grown significantly, particularly among African immigrants. London has become home to vibrant Nigerian-led congregations, such as the Redeemed Christian Church of God, which now has branches throughout the UK. Similarly, France has seen an influx of African Christian communities, many of which are growing as traditional Catholic parishes decline. These communities often bring a dynamic form of Christianity that blends charismatic worship with a strong emphasis on community and spiritual healing, much like Jenkins predicted.

In North America, particularly the United States, the story is similar. The Latino population, much of which is Catholic, is increasingly influencing the religious landscape. Evangelical and Pentecostal movements are also growing among Latinos, reshaping both Protestant and Catholic churches. Additionally, African and Asian immigrants have established churches that are often centers of both spiritual and cultural life, contributing to the religious diversity of cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

There are profound weaknesses in some of these movements. Prosperity theology—which was imported from America—is a plague. But the leaders I’ve met in the Global South churches recognize it, reject it, and are looking to embody and spread a more orthodox and robust expression of the Faith.

The influence isn’t merely Pentecostal, however. American Anglicans are looking to African Sees instead of to Canterbury for Apostolic oversight and alignment, and Korean Presbyterian congregations are flourishing in the United States. There are some 4000 such churches here, over 300 of which are in the PCA. The largest Presbyterian Church in the world is in Korea (and that’s also true for Baptists, Methodists, and Pentecostals). The Korean Presbyterians sponsor missions into numerous countries and, together with other Korean denominations, show every evidence of being a force in global missions for years to come.

4. The Southern Missionary Movement: Sending Faith Back to the North

Jenkins also envisioned a scenario where Christians from the Global South would actively engage in missionary efforts in the Global North, aiming to reinvigorate the faith in regions where secularism is rising. This has begun to occur, though perhaps not yet on the scale that Jenkins anticipated.

One of the most prominent examples of this trend is the increase in African and Asian missionaries working in Europe and North America. Many African churches, particularly those in Nigeria and Ghana, have established international branches, sending missionaries to cities in the United States and Europe. These missionaries often focus on immigrant communities but are also increasingly reaching out to secularized Europeans and Americans. One of the finest men we support in such endeavors is PCA minister Tony Wang, working in Orange County. I have no doubt what he’s doing will impact generations.

Back in the UK, the Redeemed Christian Church of God, which Jenkins mentions as a case study, has established over 800 congregations and is expanding rapidly in the US. The church’s emphasis on revival, holiness, and spiritual renewal aligns well with Jenkins’ prediction of a Southern-driven missionary effort aimed at bringing new life to the Christianity of the North.

Similarly, Latin American evangelicals, especially Pentecostals, send missionaries to the United States. These missionaries often frame their work in terms of evangelizing not just immigrants but also native-born Americans, especially in areas where traditional churches have declined. Some of these efforts have succeeded, although their influence on broader American Christianity remains limited compared to the immigrant-focused communities. But that’s exactly what would be expected, with the second and third generations making further cultural inroads.

5. Challenges to Jenkins’ Vision of Reconversion

While there are clear signs that Jenkins' predictions are materializing, southern Christians' reconversion of the Global North faces several challenges. First, the secularization of Europe and North America is deep and pervasive, particularly in countries like France, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia, where religion has largely been relegated to the private sphere. In these regions, even immigrant churches struggle to make an impact beyond their own communities. That said, where secularization has subverted state-church hegemony, many leaders find that a rising generation is more open to the Gospel. Far from being Christianity’s ultimate enemy in some places, it aided the renewal and spread of the Faith.

In the United States, where Christianity remains more vibrant than in Europe, the increasing polarization of religion and politics complicates the picture. While Southern Christianity often aligns with socially conservative values, the cultural divisions in the US may limit the appeal of Southern missionary efforts. Moreover, the rise of the “nones” (those who identify as having no religious affiliation) in the US continues to accelerate, particularly among younger generations, indicating that the broader cultural drift toward secularism is not easily reversed.

Another challenge is the language and cultural barriers that Global South missionaries face when evangelizing in the North. Many of the fastest-growing churches in Europe and North America cater to immigrant populations and are linguistically and culturally distinct from the mainstream. While they may represent a significant presence within their communities, their ability to engage secularized Westerners on a broad scale remains limited.

6. Signs of Success: A Partial Reconversion?

Despite these challenges, Jenkins’ vision of a partial reconversion is visible in some areas. Immigrant churches and southern missionaries are clearly revitalizing Christian life in parts of Europe and North America. For instance, while traditional churches continue to decline, Pentecostalism and evangelicalism—often led by southern Christians—are growing. This is particularly evident in urban areas where immigrant populations are concentrated.

African and Latin American churches play a major role in shaping the religious landscape in London, Paris, and Madrid. In the US, the growth of Latino Christianity is already having a significant impact on both Catholic and Protestant churches, reshaping the American religious landscape. These movements represent a demographic shift and a theological one, as southern Christians bring new perspectives on faith, spirituality, and social issues.

7. Conclusion: A New Christendom Emerging?

Jenkins' The Next Christendom offers a bold and sweeping vision of the future of Christianity. His forecast that southern Christians will play a major role in reinvigorating the faith in the Global North is beginning to unfold, albeit unevenly and often in more subtle than dramatic ways. Immigrant communities are bringing vibrant expressions of Christianity to Europe and North America, and southern missionaries are beginning to plant seeds of reconversion in secularized regions.

While I don’t look for or welcome anything like “Christendom” ( as it occurred historically), I understand Jenkins’ use of the term to describe a brighter future than so many negative contemporary voices are willing to note.

The full realization of Jenkins' vision may take longer than anticipated, and it will likely occur in fits and starts rather than through a rapid transformation. Yet, as Jenkins aptly notes, the future of the faith is already here—it is southern, dynamic, and on the move. It is hastened by the impact of the internet and other forms of global communication, access to education, and ease of travel for many.

In sum, The Next Christendom remains a vital and prescient work that challenges Western-centric views of Christianity and reminds us that the faith is far from static. The rise of Christianity in the Global South is a powerful reminder that the church is always changing, adapting, and perhaps poised to surprise us again.

Here’s a link to the book - https://www.amazon.com/Next-Christendom-Coming-Global-Christianity/dp/0199767467/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2Y6Z3AHUXG67E&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.g0569rI6fanY1rOVuQ9PfZ7qMkVnvE6PlyCY-X8wbaWfrshFXU38MsE9IjZg8L0cn-jJobigiQaW5q-YCtfhLyXnef-u441Ofh7HYmY0jQypnBAflQCyZwPax3YHNMT-MUY0FceP-S6Tq6gInEl4Tg.SEcNEovpRwGuOZBiIgoRkkTTk0N_hsnt9NbcN5ueP0o&dib_tag=se&keywords=Philip+Jenkins+Next+Christendom&qid=1725883416&sprefix=philip+jenkins+next+christendom%2Caps%2C137&sr=8-1